DEFENCE & SECURITY OUTLOOK ON PRC (CHINA)

China is a powerful Asian country and has evolved as a leading regional and global military power in the 21st century. Safeguarding its territorial integrity while maintaining domestic and regional stability has driven the country towards a rapid expansion of its military might. While strongly defending its territory, China has also adopted an assertive policy over strategic issues in the Asian continent. The military organisation of the country, called the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is controlled by the Central Military Commission (CMC) which is the supreme defence policy making body. The Chairman of the CMC is the Commander-in-Chief of the PLA. The active forces of PLA consist of the Army, Navy, Air Force, PLA Rocket Force (erstwhile Second Artillery Corps), military schools and national defence scientific research institutions. China has rapidly modernised its armed forces in the aftermath of the two Gulf Wars fought in 1990 and 2003. Once following “limited local war” strategy evolved from Mao Zedong’s “protracted people’s war”, the PLA of today has adopted the “people’s war under hi-tech conditions” tactics as part of its modernisation drive that began in 1993. The new warfare tactics rely more on advanced technology than on troops. The “people’s war” strategy, based on large-scale land and guerrilla warfare methods, was designed to confront mainly Japan and the erstwhile Soviet Union. However, the doctrine became redundant following the disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991. Shifting away from such warfare methodology to a modern, hi-tech condition was necessitated after the rise of the US as the supreme world power.Of late, the PLA has followed the doctrine of “active defence” relying on state-of-the-art military hardware, modern high-tech weapons, precision guided munitions, sophisticated command & control systems coupled with a strict military training regime and large-scale use of information technology. The new military doctrine along with structural changes in its armed forces, development of pre-emptive strike capability, change in warfare methodology, C4I2SR, ground, sea and airspace-based surveillance and information technology have gained importance in present-day Chinese armed forces. By making efforts to acquire advanced military capabilities, China has steadily transformed its posture to that of an aggressive power. The country has ramped up efforts to build and deploy strategically critical missile systems capable of not only defending its territory but also launch offensive strikes against potential enemy installations. Advanced and extensive researches have been undertaken in the past decades to develop anti-ship ballistic missile system (ASBM), ballistic missile defence (BMD) capabilities and even anti-satellite weapons (ASW) to carry out space war. All these powerful weapons have been developed as part of China’s “anti-access and area-denial” (A2AD) strategy. In 2010, China for the first time conducted a ground-based mid-course interceptor missile test which demonstrated its capability to track down and destroy mid-course ballistic missiles, with many defence experts believing that the country was nearing to achieve BMD capability. In January 2013, PRC conducted another such test to exhibit that it is increasing its potential in missile interception capabilities. The test was followed by another one in 2014 during which a land-based mid-course missile interceptor successfully traced, tracked and destroyed a ballistic missile flying in outer space. In February 2018, Beijing announced yet another successful test firing of its ground-based mid-course anti-missile interceptor system. Back in 2007, the country had also tested a ground-based direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon to destroy one of its defunct weather satellites, proving its capability to attack satellites and space assets in low-Earth orbit. The successful ASAT mission demonstrated China’s prowess to launch space warfare missions and was viewed by many countries as a serious threat to their vital space-based systems. In May 2013, Beijing launched a rocket into space which later re-entered Earth’s atmosphere above the Indian Ocean. According to military experts, the test was a new interceptor weapon that could be used to destroy satellites in orbit. Another test of a similar weapon, designated Dong Neng-3 (DN-3), was conducted in October 2015. In yet another new military technical breakthrough in January 2014, China test flew a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) capable of cruising at a top speed of Mach 10. The HGV test, marking a step beyond China’s ASBM programme, featured a slower, shorter-range manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (RV). 

The ultra-high-speed vehicle was launched into space by an intercontinental ballistic missile. A second test flight of the new system was carried out in August 2014 followed by one more test reported in December 2014. In June 2015, the Chinese Defence Ministry confirmed the fourth test of hypersonic nuclear delivery vehicle followed by a second test that year in August 2015 and yet another test in November 2015, which was the sixth test launch of the new weapon. The most recent test of the glider vehicle took place in April 2016. In October 2017, China for the first time publicly revealed the images of the hypersonic vehicle along with a hypersonic wind tunnel that is being used for testing the HGV. The country continued to undertake more tests involving hypersonic technology in 2018. Another frontier that has come to occupy centre-stage in China’s overall military strategy is the strengthening of its asymmetric warfare capabilities involving cyberspace. China has accelerated its activities in cyberspace domain by developing newer capabilities to not only defend its information technology network but even launch offensive operations against its adversaries. Acknowledging the potentiality of information technology in military arena which can have wider implications from both tactical as well strategic perspectives, China has swiftly built up its information warfare capability to launch computer network-based war that could paralyse and upset the entire civilian and military apparatus of a country by taking control of its information & information-based systems. Development of electronic countermeasure weapons, cyber espionage and carrying out attacks on internet network are becoming potential tools for China to launch cyberspace-based operations. One of the most vital aspects of modern Chinese military build-up is the rapid growth of its maritime power. As the country expands its economic horizons and realises the increased importance of sea lanes as vital trading routes, it is adopting a strategy of “sea control” and “sea denial” to ascertain its supremacy over water resources within its territory and beyond. The country’s navy has focused on strengthening its anti-surface, anti-submarine and anti-air warfare capabilities while building up a credible at-sea nuclear deterrent. The PLA’s air power too has taken significant strides in the present century by deploying new-generation stealth warplanes/ bombers, combat helicopters, drones, long-range transporters, refuelling tankers along with advanced weapon systems to carry out integrated operations alongside the Army and Navy. According to a Pentagon report, China’s air force is “pursuing modernisation on a scale unprecedented in its history and is rapidly closing the gap with Western air forces across a broad spectrum of capabilities including aircraft, command and control, jammers, electronic warfare and data-links.” The steady enhancement and expansion of PLA’s military aviation capabilities is clearly marked by the fact that the country announced the establishment of an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over a swath of the disputed East China Sea in December 2013. The move was aimed at putting the Air Force at the forefront in the eventuality of a war and thereby supporting the country’s expanded maritime power projection. In recent past, China has also invoked its right to set up an ADIZ in the hotly disputed South China Sea region, more so after an International Court ruled in favour of Philippines over a disputed region in the SCS. In a recent decision taken by the CPC, China has announced to optimize the size and structure of its army, while also focusing on optimizing the function and institution settings of the Central Military Commission. In September 2015, Beijing announced that its 2.3 million strong People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest military, would be cut by 3,00,000 troops. The troops cut exercise was completed in 2018 and the PLAGF now remains a two-million-strong force. A 2017 report further stated that number of troops in the PLA Ground Forces would be reduced to less than one million in the coming years even as the troops strength of PLA Navy, PLA Strategic Support Force and PLA Rocket Force would be increased while the PLA Air Force’s active service personnel will remain the same.

The country has also announced to strengthen the joint operational command authority under the CMC, and the theatre joint operation command system. The new joint operational command structure would be completed by 2020. In yet another sweeping reform carried out in 2015, Beijing has integrated the PLA area commands overseeing two neighbouring countries – India and Pakistan, thereby junking its Soviet-era model for a US-style joint command structure to fortify the ruling Communist Party’s control. Of the seven military area commands – at Beijing, Nanjing, Chengdu, Jinan, Shenyang, Lanzhou and Guangzhou – the Chengdu military command was in charge of security along India’s Eastern sector in the Tibet region including Arunachal Pradesh while the Lanzhou military command looked after the Western sector, including the Kashmir region and Pakistan. As per the new strategic zone plan unveiled by President Xi, both the Chengdu and Lanzhou have been integrated into a strategic command region, making it perhaps the biggest areas for the PLA. The overhaul is aimed at moving away from an army-centric system towards a Western-style Joint Command in which the Army, Navy and Air Force are equally represented. In early 2016, the PLA was reformed again so as to include five new Theatre Commands by replacing the seven previously existing Military Regions. 

The Defence Ministry announced that the new Theatre Commands – North, South, East, West and Central – under the administration of the CMC, would be based on the functions and structure of the military regions (MRs) they replaced, with improved mechanisms for command and logistics. The PLA would establish a Transitional Work Office to ensure a smooth transition from the old MRs to the new Theatre Commands. As part of the overall military reforms initiated by President Xi Jinping, who also heads the decision-making Central Military Commission (CMC) and also assumed the role of Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Battle Command Centre of the CMC in 2016, the PLA has dissolved the four existing general headquarters and instead set up 15 new organisations including the Headquarters of the Joint Force. The restructuring of the CMC has been done to consolidate its authority and further centralise the structure of the People’s Liberation Army. All the reforms have been announced to transform the PLA into a leaner fighting force with improved joint operations capability. 

The urge to grow economically and militarily has driven China to exert its influence in and around the resource-rich areas of Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea and East China Sea which are major trading routes and are also believed to treasure huge amounts of oil and natural gas along with fishing and mineral resources. The Asian giant has intensified efforts to expand its footprint in the SCS, ECS and recently, even in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by building up new harbours and other infrastructural setups, thereby adding to the worry of the neighbouring littoral states which are at loggerheads with Beijing. In the coming decades, the PLAN is likely to bolster its presence in the IOR significantly by deploying one or more aircraft carrier battle groups (CBGs) and building more naval bases, according to military analysts. China’s growing power projection and aggressive stance over regional and littoral issues has alarmed the international community even though Beijing maintains that it follows a “non-offensive strategy” with a “need to expand” while safeguarding its “rights and interests”. The growing territorial disputes in the Asia-Pacific region, with China being at the centre, have flared up regional tensions and invited global attention and concern. Moreover, the highly secretive military plans and pursuits by the Communist China have cast a blurred picture of the country’s real ambitions and intentions in the longer run. In July 2019, the country released its latest Defence White Paper which, among other aspects assesses the PLA’s progress on modernisation and military reforms. The report also states the official stance of Beijing and its response to the evolving strategic realities of the Asia-Pacific and beyond. Besides, it puts light on a number of key military weapons and platforms that have been commissioned into service of late 2019.